Similar growth has been recorded by NeighborhoodScout.com as their data also shows that in the past ten years, Phoenix real estate appreciated by 139.72%. In this episode I go over predictions for the real estate market in 2021. There’s a lot to unpack here. Renter-friendly rules like requiring a landlord to return a rental deposit within two weeks are not a burden. Specifically, these are metropolitan-area real estate markets that have the best potential for home-price appreciation over the next year. Phoenix is 74% during this period. Although August's housing statistics are yet to be released by ARMLS the total sales in August are expected to surpass July's figures. On top of all that, the COVID-19 pandemic has put a premium on space. The median sales price in Maricopa County for Q1-2020 was $309,990, up by + 12.7% from last year. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. Phoenix real estate appreciation rate in the latest quarter was at 1.90%, which equates to an annual appreciation rate of 7.83%. That probably explains why Airbnb guests grew by 150% in 2016 alone. (Note the all-important decimal in that figure.) A law that went into effect in 2016 made Arizona a leader in Airbnb rentals. In fact, recent forecasts for the Phoenix-area real estate market suggest that home prices will continue to rise at an above-average pace well into 2021. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 2.81% as of October 29, 2020. Tucson like Phoenix sees a massive influx of snowbirds, retirees who flock here during the winter. Earlier, housing experts had forecasted that home sales could slow by as much as 80% during this summer. Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY 3rd Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Phoenix, Arizona Don’t let memories of the Great Recession bust that cut home values in the Phoenix housing market keep you away. This is a radical shift from the suburban sprawl the area has long been known for. Pending home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020. As our economy’s record-breaking expansion continues into its 126th month, talk of an impending recession is to be expected. Since 2006, the population has grown faster than housing. High-tech house flippers such as Zillow are using algorithms to reshape the stodgy, $26 trillion market for U.S. residential real estate. In the latest quarter, the appreciation rate has been 2.42%, which annualizes to a rate of 10.02%. But let’s zero in on the inventory situation. Markets with the highest year-over-year increases in home values were Phoenix (10.5%), San Jose (10.3%) and Seattle (9.2%).”. Based on all of these trends, the 2021 housing market forecast for Phoenix, Arizona can be summed up in two sentences: Record-low mortgage rates will continue to fuel demand among home buyers, at a time when inventory remains near a record low. That makes the Phoenix metro area the twelfth largest in the country. Phoenix housing market 2020 started so strong that only something as drastic as the ongoing pandemic could have impeded the real estate sector. The forecasts for seasonally adjusted home prices and pending sales are more optimistic than previous forecasts because sales and prices have stayed strong through the summer months amid increasingly short inventory and high demand. These 13 housing crash factors will shape the housing market. https://www.tripsavvy.com/what-is-a-snowbird-2683049, Tourism/Airbnb The Phoenix Home Price Index has increased for the last 29 consecutive quarters. Data from Veros Real Estate Solutions reveals that the hottest Arizona housing market for 2021 will be Sierra Vista, with a 5.8% increase in home prices. Realtor.com's forecast and housing market predictions on key trends that will shape the year ahead. Olympia, Washington Housing market predictions for 2021 review. (No, and Here’s Why), Top-5 U.S. Housing Market Predictions for 2021, Mortgage Rate Trends: 30-Year Fixed Outshines ARM Loans in 2020. September’s 6.54 million in sales has left the market with only 2.7 … Is It The Right Time To Invest In Real Estate? Economists believe the U.S. might have a complete “shutdown in the housing market” soon and Covid-19 fears will leave a “drastic impact” on real estate. What’s Really Causing the High Rents? Under the new law, owners of short-term rentals should have a sales tax license and they must list the sales tax license number on any advertisements (online/offline) for the property. RL Brown has issued a forecast for the metropolitan Phoenix housing market every year since 1985 and is recognized as one of the premier housing market forecasters in the region for the thoroughness of the preparation and for the accuracy of his predictions. Phoenix housing forecasts for 2021 predict a continuation of these trends. The Metro Phoenix housing market is extremely strong and has been hitting a number of new records in the last few days. https://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/az/maricopa-county/phoenix, Renovation This means that many snowbirds end up staying permanently in the Phoenix housing market. The Housing Market Could Fall Very, Very Sharply by 2021! The Phoenix housing market is much larger than Phoenix itself – it encompasses the entire Valley of the Sun, Phoenix’s sprawling suburbs that are home to another five million people. According to the latest data from Redfin, the housing market in Phoenix, Arizona had about a 1.4-month supply of homes for sale as of August 2020. But it’s hard to predict how heavily the virus will impact real estate in 2020. Earlier this month, the property valuation company Veros Real Estate Solutions published a housing market forecast that ranked the ten strongest housing markets in the U.S. Based on the last two Las Vegas housing market predictions for 2021, it’s possible that the city may go through a market shift – from a very hot seller’s market, closer to a buyer’s market. This figure also corroborates with Zillow's positive forecast, so the home prices in this region would increase by at least 8-10% in the next twelve months. Phoenix Housing Forecast for 2021: Above-Average Price Growth Ahead? LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability of rising home prices in Phoenix … Here they will not face multiple offers, but they may find some builders are not accepting contracts except for homes that are near completion. The main factor driving all of this? As of July 27th, the multi-family rent … Arizona Regional MLS includes Maricopa County and most of Pinal County. Months supply of inventory has shrunk to as low as 1.48. They want homes with office space and yards, and at a reasonable price. What does 2021 have in store for us? In September of 2019, the difference was $75,153 With the chronic shortage of re-sale homes, many buyers are turning to new-builds. Distressed sales accounted for 0.4% of total sales, the same as the previous month. Forecast Prices Nationally. It shows no sign of cooling off, surprisingly so. You’ll see better than average returns on the average Scottsdale real estate investment property, and its value will be bolstered by a variety of factors. Two-bedroom apartment rents average $1436 (an 8.7% increase from last year). The city stands out for its sixty-plus RV parks. The same things that attract many people to Phoenix as snowbirds cause many to retire here permanently. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Phoenix include large apartment complexes, duplexes, rowhouses, and homes converted to apartments. This shows that the Phoenix rental market is also affordable. These values (by Zillow) are seasonally adjusted and only include the middle price tier of homes. Prices are up 17.8% since two years ago and 145% since prices bottomed out in May 2011. It is quite evident that the ongoing pandemic has not had any major impact on Phoenix's housing market. Job growth has been vigorous for the past few years while single-family building permit activity has been relatively modest. They expect house values in the area to continue climbing for the foreseeable future. It was quite unusual for the number of listings under contract to be higher on October 1 than September 1, but this what the pandemic has done in 2020. That’s a much higher rate of growth than the national average for the same timeframe, and higher than many other metro areas across the U.S. Typically, a market that favors sellers has less than 6 months of supply, while more than 6 months of supply indicates an excess of homes for sale that favors buyers. The state has a relatively low transfer tax on deeds or land contracts, too. Single-family homes account for about 60% of Phoenix's housing units. Now the market is facing a shortage of homes for sale. The question now is what happens moving forward. https://armls.com/docs/2020-APRIL-STATwith-commentary.pdf Baby boomers will sell their homes at a higher clip. The distressed seller's market is becoming a non-factor in this region. Despite the rise in new listings, the environment is extremely difficult for homebuyers in metro Phoenix. “The 2021 housing market will be much more ‘normal’ than the wild swings we saw in 2020. Joseph Goodhue 310-980-0571 JoeG@AlphonsoBjorn.com Hilton & Hyland DRE02006693 The average sales price is up +23.1% year-over-year while the year-over-year median sales price is also up +17.5%. The neighborhoods in Phoenix must be safe to live in and should have a low crime rate. Kiplinger listed Arizona as the 8th most tax-friendly state in the U.S. in 2018. September recorded the highest median sales price ever reported, the highest average sales price ever reported and the highest sales volume for any September in the past. As of October 6, the company’s website stated: “Phoenix home values have gone up 11.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.1% within the next year.”. Population growth is a key factor in this. In Numerology, the year 2020 is a year of vibration 4. They went on to predict that 2021 would bring the first decline in nine years, and by April 2021 the national price gain would turn negative, down 1.3 percent. The change in home prices for Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ is shown below for the three-time periods (data up to 3rd Quarter, 2018). After all, a buyer’s market is characterized by both rising inventory and dropping prices. Here are the ARMLS numbers for the Maricopa County housing market for the third quarter of 2020. This can be compared to 2020 when around 6 million of the population failed to pay their rent. The location creates desirability. Short sales dropped -52.0% year-over-year. The median home is worth around $177,000 and came with a property tax bill of around $1400, well below what you’d pay in Texas. These will be the primary driving forces through the end of 2020 and into 2021. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates. However, it’s important to keep in mind one factor and that is demand. The Home Buying Institute makes no claims or assertions about future housing conditions. It is cultivating fifteen complete walkable communities across the metro area with strong public transit, denser housing, and locally provided services. Alhambra, where the average rent goes for $942/mo. Phoenix Housing Market and Real Estate Price Forecast, Short-Term Property Price Prognosis for Next Months and Year Short-term real estate market and home value forecast … What are the Phoenix real estate market predictions for 2021? So you’re hoping to buy or sell a home and want to know what the housing market forecast is like—especially after the coronavirus outbreak. May 28, 2020 May 28, 2020 NeedMag. But we can look at some of the factors that might contribute to a 2021 housing crash. Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Austin and Atlanta had the biggest net inflows of Redfin.com users in the second quarter [of 2020].”, (In this context, a “net inflow” means there are more people looking to move into an area than leave it.). The fall season has become as busy for home buying as the summer season. Housing market predictions for 2021: Factors to consider Factor #1: The real estate market. Housing Market Crash 2021: The housing reports are comprehensive assessments and predictions of US Housing markets drawing insight from NAR, CAR, Corelogic, Wall Street Journal, Freddie Mac, tradingeconomics, statista, and more industry sources. The 10,303 home sales were not only the highest number of sales ever in July, but one of the highest monthly totals ever. The only con is that lenders are requiring higher credit scores because of looming economic uncertainty. Some of the information contained in this article was pulled from third party sites mentioned under references. Let us know which real estate markets you consider best for real estate investing! Overall, retail and food spending has been down since January, which is a direct cause of the pandemic and subsequent economic slowdown. As of early October 2020, the median home value for Phoenix, Arizona was around $288,000. Phoenix is also one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation. The reason is that sellers have shown great faith by putting up listings after a slump due to COVID-19. This is good news for real estate investors looking to buy a rental property in a strong housing market. Here is the latest housing forecast for Phoenix, Metro Phoneix, and Maricopa County until September of 2021. For sellers, this is the best time to sell for a profit as housing inventory is reported to be at an 8-year low. The Covid 19 shutdowns have impacted the rental housing market, yet prices have risen and look to rise further in the face of ongoing rental housing shortages, and a housing market that may cool. Sun City stands out as a mecca for seasonal and year-round retirees, but it is far from the only retirement community in the Phoenix real estate market. Similarly, a recent housing report published by Zillow showed that total inventory for the Phoenix metropolitan area dropped by -21.8% from September 2019 to September 2020. Good cash flow from Phoenix investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. In a balanced real estate market, it would take about five to six months for the supply to dwindle to zero. https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/catherine-reagor/2020/05/28/coronavirus-arizona-phoenix-housing-market-success-2020-pandemic-impact/5223134002/, Foreclosures August’s sales were at 99% of the 3 year average of 165 (from 2017-2019). In short, Phoenix remains a sizzling hot seller's real estate market in the current cycle. Arizona has long attracted retirees who couldn’t afford Florida or wanted a cleaner, allergy-free air that never included storm clouds. Conversely, laws that say you can evict a tenant within ten days for lying on a rental application are a definite plus. These prices are from Realtor.com and can vary from time to time. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.2% from September 2020 to October 2020, and on a year-over-year basis by 0.2% from September 2020 to September 2021. Accurate Psychic Predicts Serious Events Ahead for 2021. Housing Market Crash 2021: The housing reports are comprehensive assessments and predictions of US Housing markets drawing insight from NAR, CAR, Corelogic, Wall Street Journal, Freddie Mac, tradingeconomics, statista, and more industry sources. The housing market around the coveted warm-weather Arizona metropolitan areas of Phoenix, Mesa and Glendale is predicted to see a 5.3% increase in home prices heading into 2021. The US housing market had a great year in 2020, and the circumstances ahead should make the forecast for year 2021 an amazing one.. With low inventory, delayed construction, latent buyers ready to pounce, and a cash rich buyer pool, a 20% year over year price growth rate by May isn’t outlandish. The Arizona Summit Law School, Grand Canyon University, and several others are located here. Total residential housing starts hit 1.27 million last year and are forecast to rise again to 1.31 million in 2020, before returning to the 1.27 million range by 2023. We can see that supply remains very low indeed (1.48 Months) but has only declined -2.63% over the past month, a much weaker trend than last month. http://www.friends.org/latest/accessory-dwelling-units-are-cities-and-counties-doing-enough In terms of months of supply, Phoenix can become a buyer’s real estate market if the supply increases to more than five months of inventory. Disclaimer: This story contains third-party predictions and forecasts for the Phoenix-area real estate market. Despite home prices increasing 4.8% year over year in May, a report by CoreLogic predicts home prices will stall over the summer and estimates a 6.6% decline by … In short, there are a lot more buyers in the market right now than there are homes available, and that’s putting significant upward pressure on prices across the Phoenix metro area. The state income tax is 2.59% for low-income earners, 4.54% for wealthier families. Currently, the gap between a median-priced new build and a resale is only $40,397. Are prices going to crash in 2021? Latest Market Data, Trends, and Statistics The percent of Phoenix homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 7.4%, which is higher than the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metro at 7.1%. Many Tenants are Still Paying Rent But It May Not Last. Sales in the Metro Phoenix housing market have fully recovered and posted a year-over-year increase of almost 13% in July.
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